This demonstrates the robustness of the Financing Deficit Model in explaining credit constraints in Indian MSMEs, particularly in informal and micro segments.
Interpretation: The Financing Deficit Model, which incorporates working capital needs, fixed asset formation, and leverage as indicators of credit demand, was statistically validated using regression techniques. The model showed strong predictive capacity (78% accuracy) in determining which firms would face credit constraints, particularly emphasizing working capital and leverage as significant predictors.
Implications: The robustness of this model offers a practical tool for both researchers and policymakers to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional collateral-based approaches. Financial institutions can adopt this model to evaluate MSME credit potential using internal business metrics rather than rigid documentation requirements. This shifts the lens from a security-first model to a needs-and-capacity-based model, promoting financial inclusion while still managing risk.
Objective 3: Influence of Financial Factors on Credit Access
The relationship between financial variables and credit access was explored in detail:
| Financial Factor | Average Score | Loan Rejection Rate |
|---|
| High Working Capital Need | 3.2 / 4 | 58% |
| Fixed Asset Investors | 2.7 / 4 | 46% |
| High Leverage (≥ 2.0 ratio) | 3.4 / 4 | 63% |
These figures confirm that firms with higher leverage and working capital needs face greater credit constraints. Fixed asset investment also plays a role, though to a lesser extent.
Interpretation: Firms with high working capital gaps and elevated debt-to-equity ratios were found to be significantly more likely to face credit constraints. While fixed asset investment also played a role, its impact was comparatively moderate.
Implications: This indicates that MSMEs needing day-to-day liquidity (working capital) and already burdened with debt are perceived as high-risk by lenders. However, these financial behaviors are typical for growth-phase enterprises. By penalizing them with limited credit, the financial ecosystem inadvertently stifles growth.
Banks and NBFCs should therefore design products that accommodate cyclical working capital requirements and offer restructuring or tiered leverage models to absorb these fluctuations.
Objective 4: Role of Firm and Banking Sector Characteristics
Firm size, age and proximity to banks had a significant effect on credit access:
Micro enterprises had the highest rejection rate at 51%, compared to 11% for medium enterprises.
| Type | Rejection Rate |
|---|
| Micro | 51% |
| Small | 22% |
| Medium | 11% |
Firms less than 1 year old had a 63% rejection rate. Younger firms suffer more, confirming bank preferences for maturity and stability.
| Age of Firm | Rejection Rate |
|---|
| < 1 year | 63% |
| 1–3 years | 44% |
| > 5 years | 19% |
Firms located within 1 km of a bank had significantly better approval rates at 61% than those more than 10 km away at 17%. Closer banking access correlates strongly with higher approval rates.
| Distance | Avg Approval Rate |
|---|
| < 1 km | 61% |
| 1–5 km | 38% |
| > 10 km | 17% |
These patterns confirm that small, young and remote firms are structurally disadvantaged in the credit market.
Interpretation: Firm-level variables such as age, size, and proximity to formal banking infrastructure significantly influenced credit outcomes. Younger firms and micro enterprises had the highest rejection rates. Similarly, firms located farther from bank branches reported lower access to credit.
Implications: These patterns suggest that the formal banking system still favors established, larger and geographically advantaged firms. In effect, this creates a spatial and structural credit exclusion. The implication is twofold: first, there is a need for better outreach through digital banking and mobile lending units;